The lessons of the Valtai Club and reactions of President Vladimir Putin
/The Valdai Club meeting took place in Sochi on November 4-7, giving President Vladimir Putin an opportunity - through a variety of media questions - to return to geopolitical issues and his reaction to Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States.
Due to the length of the stenogram, only the Ukraine and Donald Trump items were selected for translation.
Dr.HDR Gaël-Georges MOULLEC
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Vladimir Putin: ... The West's misinterpretation of what it saw as the results of the Cold War, its unlimited and unprecedented geopolitical greed, and how it began to reshape the world as it saw fit, are the true origins of the conflicts of our historic era, beginning with the tragedies of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, and now Ukraine and the Middle East....(p.5)
...You know, even before all the acute conflicts today, many European leaders have told me: they [the Americans] are scaring us, but with you we are not afraid, we don't see threats. It's a straight talk, you know? I think the U.S. also understood that very well, felt that they were already looking at NATO as a side organization. Trust me, I know what I'm saying. But still, the experts there understood that NATO was necessary. And how to preserve its value, its attractiveness? Russia and Europe, especially Russia and Germany, and France, must be torn apart by conflicts. That is how they brought us to the coup in Ukraine and to the hostilities in the South-East, in the Donbass. They just forced us to fight back and, in that sense, they got what they wanted. The same thing is happening in Asia, on the Korean Peninsula, I think... (p.9)
...Our adversaries are finding new ways and tools to try to get rid of us. They are now using Ukraine and Ukrainians as a tool; Ukrainians who are simply being cynically trained against Russians, effectively turning them into cannon fodder. And all of this is accompanied by a speech about choosing Europe. What a choice! We certainly don't need it. We will defend ourselves, we will defend our people - no one should have any illusions about this.... (p.13)....They finally arrived in Ukraine and were involved in the bases and NATO.
2008: a decision was taken in Bucharest to open NATO's doors to Ukraine and Georgia. Why, pardon the simplicity of the expression, why on earth did they do that? Have there been difficulties in world affairs? Yes, we have had a dispute with Ukraine over gas prices, but we have solved the problem. What's the problem? Why did it have to be done - just to create the conditions for conflict? We knew very well where that would lead. No, we have continued, again and again: the development of our historic territories, the support of a regime with obvious neo-Nazi leanings... (p.14).
...You can reprimand Russia all you want, and we probably make a lot of mistakes too, but when we are told that we signed the Minsk agreements on Ukraine only to give Ukraine the opportunity to rearm and that we had no intention of resolving this conflict peacefully, what kind of confidence can we talk about? What are you? What confidence? You have directly and publicly stated that you have deceived us, that you have lied to us and that you have deceived us. What kind of trust is that? But we must gradually return to this system of mutual trust. I do not know, we can debate here until the morning, but this is the first step towards the creation of a unified Eurasian security system. Is it possible or not? ... (p.28)
... [Following the election of Donald Trump] I don’t know what will happen now, I have no idea: it’s his last term after all, what he will do- it’s his problems... I do not want to comment now on what was said during the election campaign, I think it was said consciously in the fight for votes, but it does not matter. And what has been said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to contribute to the end of the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, that at least deserves attention.
I take this opportunity to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States of America. I have already said that we will work with any head of state in whom the American people place their trust. This will be true in practice... (p.31)
...A lot revolves around Taiwan. Everybody formally recognizes that, yes, Taiwan is part of China. But in reality? But in reality, they are acting in a completely different direction, causing the situation to worsen. Why? Isn't that why they caused the Ukraine crisis? To create a crisis in Europe and then say to the rest of the world, guys, come here, closer to me, because you can't get by without me. Perhaps that logic is working in Asia, too?
So we support China. Because we believe it is pursuing an absolutely balanced policy, but also because it is our ally. Our trade is very important and we cooperate in the area of security.
You mentioned that we do exercises. Yeah. Yeah. Isn’t the US conducting exercises with Japan? Regularly. And they do regular exercises with other countries.... (p.41)
...With regard to the resolution of acute crises, we have a great deal of respect and gratitude for the ideas of the Indian leaders, and especially the Prime Minister, who has expressed his concerns about, for example, the conflict, including towards Ukraine, and has put forward his ideas for a settlement. This is certainly part of our vision, and we are undoubtedly grateful not only to the Indian Prime Minister for his attention to these problems, but also for his proposals and for what he is doing and how he is doing it in this regard... (p.44)
Feodor Lukyanov: Vladimir Vladimirovich, I can't help but wonder, since we're talking about borders, what are the borders within which we recognize Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin: You know, we've always recognized Ukraine's borders in the agreements we made after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in Ukraine's declaration of independence it is written - and Russia has supported it - that Ukraine is a neutral state. It is on that basis that we have recognized borders. But later, as you know, the Ukrainian leadership changed the basic law and announced their desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is not what we agreed. That's the first thing to do.
Second, we have never and nowhere supported a coup, nor do we support it in Ukraine. We understand and support those who disagreed with the coup and recognize their right to defend their interests.
I have already had a discussion with the Secretary-General of the United Nations [António Guterres] several times, and there is no secret. I don't think he'll be angry with me either. He supports those who say that we have violated the norms and principles of international law, the UN Charter, that we have started hostilities in Ukraine. I've said this before, but I'll use your question, please, and I'll repeat the logic of our actions once again.
If, in accordance with Article 1, I believe, of the UN Charter, every people has the right to self-determination, the people of Crimea and southeastern Ukraine who have not accepted the coup, which is an illegal and unconstitutional act, have the right to self-determination, do they not? Yeah, I did.
The United Nations International Court of Justice has decided, in analyzing the situation in Kosovo, that a territory, when declaring its independence, is not obliged to seek the opinion and authorization of the central authorities of the country of which that territory currently forms part, at the time of the decision, is it not? Of course it is, since it is the decision of the United Nations International Court of Justice.
So these territories, including Novorossia and Donbass, had the right to decide on their sovereignty, right? Of course they did. This is fully in line with current international law and the UN Charter. If that is the case, we had the right to conclude appropriate inter-state agreements with these new states, right? Of course. Did we do it? Yes, we did.
These treaties include provisions on mutual assistance. We have ratified them and made certain commitments. Then those newly constituted states asked us for help under those treaties. We had the opportunity and the obligation to do so. What we did in trying to end the hostilities triggered by the Kyiv regime in 2014. We have not launched any intervention, any aggression, but we are trying to put an end to it.
The [UN] secretary-general listened, nodded silently and said, “Yes, good, but you attacked anyway”. I'm not kidding, word for word. There is no rational answer. Where's the mistake in this chain? What did I say wrong? Where have we violated international law and the UN Charter? There is no violation anywhere.
And if that is the case, then the border of Ukraine should be drawn in accordance with the sovereign decisions of the people who live in certain territories, which we call our historic territories. It all depends on the dynamics of the current events.
F. Lukyanov: Vladimir Vladimirovich, if we go back to the first link in your chain, can we understand that, when there is neutrality, we are talking about borders?
Vladimir Putin: If there is no neutrality, it is hard to imagine good neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine.
Why? Because it means that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the hands of foreigners and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation. Thus, the basic conditions for normalizing relations will not be created and the situation will evolve in an unpredictable scenario. We'd really like to avoid that.
On the contrary, we are determined to create the conditions for a long-term settlement and to ensure that Ukraine eventually becomes an independent and sovereign state, rather than being a tool in the hands of third countries and used in their interests.
Look at what's happening right now, for example, on the contact line or in the Kursk region. They entered the Kursk region - the losses are colossal: in three months of hostilities, they lost more than in the whole of last year - more than 30,000 men. There are fewer tanks, fewer losses, and they use fewer.
And why are they sitting there, suffering such losses? That’s because they received an Atlantic [Overseas] order: to hold at all costs, precisely at all costs, at least until the elections, to show that all the efforts of the Democratic Party administration towards Kyiv, towards Ukraine, were not in vain. Hold at all costs, at all costs. That's the price to pay. A terrible tragedy, I think, both for the Ukrainian people and for the Ukrainian army.
And decisions are driven not by military considerations, to be honest, but by political considerations. In some areas, in the Kupyansk area, I don’t know if the military said it or not, there are two [encirclement] blockade centers. In one center, there is practically an encirclement: Ukrainian troops are in a hurry..., about 10,000 soldiers are stranded. In the other, near Kupyansk, about five thousand men are already surrounded. They're trying to build pontoons so they can at least partially evacuate, but our artillery is destroying them instantly.
In the area of responsibility of our Center Group, there are already two or three blockade sites [encirclement] - two, for sure, and there will probably be a third soon. The Ukrainian military can see all of that, but the decisions are made at the political level in the interest of the Ukrainian state and not the Ukrainian people.
If this situation continues indefinitely, it will certainly not lead to the creation of conditions conducive to the restoration of peace, tranquility and cooperation among neighboring States in the long term, which is what we must strive for. This is exactly what Russia aspires to do.
That is why we say that we are ready to engage in peace talks, but not on the basis of certain 'wishes', the name of which changes from month to month, but on the basis of the realities that are emerging and the agreements that were reached in Istanbul - on the basis of today's realities.
But it should not be a truce of half an hour or half a year... but to create conditions favorable to the restoration of relations and future cooperation in the interests of both peoples, who are certainly fraternal, even if the rhetoric and tragic events of today, in relations between Russia and Ukraine, complicate the situation.
So our position is clear, very clear. We will move in that direction, we will move in that direction ... (pp.49-53)
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*The Valdai Discussion Club, created in 2004, is a Moscow-based think tank that organizes an annual conference of foreign experts invited to discuss Russia and its role, political and economic in the world. Each year, the conference is an opportunity for the Russian president to address a high-level foreign audience.
Valdai is a region near Novgorod, specialized in tourism (natural park, lake, ski) and popular with Muscovites.
